Net Capital Outflow
Net capital outflow is the difference between the acquisition of foreign assets by domestic residents and the acquisition of domestic assets by foreign residents. It measures the net flow of capital from a country to the rest of the world and is equal, in the national accounts, to the trade balance plus net factor income and transfers.
Relationship to the Trade Balance
In the national accounts, net capital outflow equals the current account balance. A country with a current account surplus, exporting more than it imports, acquires net foreign assets, so its net capital outflow is positive. A country with a deficit imports more than it exports and finances the difference by selling assets to foreigners, so its net capital outflow is negative.
This identity links trade flows and capital flows, clarifying that a trade deficit is matched by a capital inflow. The identity holds by construction, but its interpretation is debated: whether capital flows drive trade or trade drives capital flows depends on the underlying causes of the imbalances.
Determinants
Net capital outflow depends on domestic and foreign interest rates, expected exchange rate changes, risk, and the investment opportunities available at home and abroad. Higher domestic interest rates attract capital, reducing net outflow. Greater risk or weaker growth prospects encourage capital to leave, increasing net outflow.
Openness and capital mobility also matter. Where capital controls restrict flows, net capital outflow is constrained by policy. Where capital is mobile, flows respond more strongly to differences in returns, and the exchange rate adjusts to balance supply and demand.
Implications for Exchange Rates
The interaction of net capital outflow with the trade balance determines the exchange rate in a floating regime. The demand for domestic currency arises from exports and from capital inflows, and the supply from imports and capital outflows. The exchange rate adjusts to equilibrate the two.
Under a fixed rate, the central bank intervenes to maintain the parity, and the adjustment occurs through changes in reserves and in domestic monetary conditions. The analysis of capital flows and exchange rates therefore depends on the exchange rate regime.
Policy Considerations
Net capital outflow affects domestic investment and the accumulation of foreign assets. Large outflows can finance investment abroad and diversify risk, but they can also reflect a lack of domestic opportunity or confidence. Large inflows can finance investment and consumption, but they can also fuel credit booms and asset bubbles.
The composition of flows matters. Long-term direct investment is generally more stable than short-term portfolio and bank flows, and the volatility of the latter can destabilise recipient economies. Policies that affect capital flows, including macroprudential measures and capital controls, are therefore central to the management of external balance.
The Open Economy Identity
The identity linking net capital outflow to the current account holds in the national accounts and provides a framework for analysing external balance. It implies that a country's net acquisition of foreign assets equals its net exports of goods, services, and factor income. The identity is an accounting relationship and does not, by itself, indicate causation.
The interpretation of the identity depends on the underlying model. In some models, capital flows drive the exchange rate and the trade balance, while in others, saving and investment decisions determine both. The direction of causation matters for policy, because it determines which instruments affect the external position.
Capital Flows and Growth
Capital flows can support growth by financing investment in economies with limited domestic saving. Foreign direct investment brings not only capital but also technology and management practices, contributing to productivity. Portfolio flows can deepen financial markets and improve risk sharing.
However, capital flows can also destabilise. Surges in inflows can fuel credit booms and asset bubbles, and reversals can trigger currency crises and recessions. The composition and the volatility of flows matter, and policies to manage them include macroprudential measures, capital flow management, and the accumulation of reserves.
Push and Pull Factors
The determinants of capital flows are often classified into push factors, which originate in global conditions, and pull factors, which reflect conditions in the recipient economy. Push factors include global interest rates, risk appetite, and growth prospects in major economies. Pull factors include domestic growth, interest rates, and institutional quality.
The relative importance of push and pull factors varies over time and across economies. During periods of global financial stress, push factors dominate, and flows reverse regardless of domestic conditions. During normal times, pull factors play a larger role, and flows respond to differences in returns and in risk.
Policy Coordination
Because capital flows affect multiple economies simultaneously, policy coordination can improve outcomes. Coordination can address the spillovers from policies in large economies, manage the risks of sudden reversals, and support the provision of global liquidity. The International Monetary Fund and other institutions provide forums for coordination and for the analysis of capital flow developments.
The design of coordination is difficult, because countries have different objectives and constraints. Nonetheless, the recognition of spillovers and of the benefits of cooperation has motivated efforts to strengthen the international financial architecture and to improve the management of capital flows.